The formation of Tropical Storm Nicole which affected the island from September 28 – October 1, 2010 was the culmination of a series of sequential weather events between September 22 and September 27 due to Tropical Depression NO. 16.
The event produced bands of showers and thunderstorms over most of the island but more so to the east, southern and western sections of the island. The event resulted in approximately 139.54 inches (3,544.4 mm) of rainfall over a 6-day period (September 26-October 1, 2010). Similar rainfall events were experienced in 1979 and in 1986. ODPEM has determined that in light of the volume and intensity of rainfall and the level of damage wrought, the event is to be classified as an extreme event. ODPEM has also indicated that it is now becoming increasingly evident that the return period for what may be deemed a 100-year event is being experienced within periods of 15-20 year cycles. The situation may have been exacerbated by an extended period of rainfall impacting the island in the days leading up to the event.
Summary Cost
The preliminary estimate of the damage and losses incurred by the Jamaican economy due to Tropical Storm Nicole and associated rains was $20.58 billion (US $239.6 million2), disaggregated as $19.51 billion in damage and $1.01 billion in losses3. With regard to total damage, publicly owned properties accounted for $19.32 billion or 93.9 per cent, while privately owned properties accounted for the remaining $1.25 million. The cost of the impact was equivalent to 1.9 per cent of current (2009) GDP, somewhat similar to the 2.1 per cent of GDP occasioned by the impact of Tropical Storm Gustav in 2008, which cost approximately US$214 million. Damage and losses in the infrastructure sector represented the greatest portion of impact accounting for over 88.1 per cent of the estimated total (See Table 1, Figure 1).
The impact of the rains necessitated a downward revision in the projected GDP growth rate, given the reported damage sustained mainly by agriculture and infrastructure (electricity, water, roads). Thus, GDP is expected to expand by 0.7 per cent instead of the 0.9 per cent projected prior to the event (a detraction of 0.2 percentage points). The Preliminary Costs of Damage and Losses caused by Tropical Storm Nicole is seen below.
As in the case with Tropical Storm Gustav, the greatest impact of Tropical Depression No. 16/Tropical Storm Nicole was to the country’s physical infrastructure. Based on preliminary assessments, damage was estimated at $18.09 billion. The associated losses, though not yet fully determined are estimated to be in the region of $28.4 million
Damage to main roads and bridges was estimated at $14.0 billion of which $1.42 billion represented the preliminary cost to reopen blocked roads. A total of 543 main roads were impacted with St. Thomas accounting for $1.54 billion or 11.0 per cent of the total cost of the damage. Another $1.90 billion was allocated to river training (Table 23). Cleaning and reconstruction of retaining walls of the Sandy Gully bridge accounted for 32.7 per cent (J$4.6 billion) of the total cost of damage to the road infrastructure.
Preliminary estimates of damage to the NWC system ranged between $240.0 million -$270.0 million. Assessment of damage to rural and remote infrastructure as well as commercial losses, increased operating costs (including the trucking of water) and other costs associated with the tropical storm has not yet been ascertained. More than 40.0 per cent of NWC’s 460 water supply systems were damaged and/or forced out of operation and a further 30.0 per cent were otherwise impacted. This resulted in water supply service to most customers being impacted in one way or another. However, within 10 days, more than 95.0 per cent of the Commission’s productive capacity and more than 85.0 per cent of its systems were restored.
Preliminary estimates indicate that the electricity sub-industry sustained damage of some $92.4 million. Associated losses were reported as being minimal as it was mainly the smaller users that were out of electricity. The impact to large consumers, for example hotels, was limited.
The impact on the JPSCo’s distribution system resulted in power outages to approximately 48.0 per cent of customers (over 288 000) islandwide.
Transportation
Physical damage to the JUTC’s four depot was minimal, estimated at $200 000, accounted for fully by damage at the Greater Portmore lay-by. The company, however, sustained loss in revenue during the initial one-week period of the event, which amounted to $25.0 million. Except for a few cancellations and flight delays, activities at the international airports functioned smoothly. The associated losses, if any, are yet to be determined. The Port Authority of Jamaica (PAJ) reported that there were no damages to its property, plant and equipment.
Agriculture
Preliminary figures from the Ministry of Agriculture indicated that total damage and loss to the agriculture sector was estimated at $576.5 million. Crop damage accounted for $531.6 million while damage to livestock was put at $32.4 million and greenhouses at $12.5 million. Damage to the infrastructure (farm roads) was estimated at $574.6 million. Some $22.0 million was also allocated as relief assistance to small farmers and greenhouse growers.
Some 40.0 per cent of banana production was affected, 26 greenhouses were damaged, and crops mainly affected included vegetables, condiments and banana/plantains4. Losses were highest in the parish of St. Elizabeth ($89.7 million) followed by Clarendon ($86.2 million) and St. Mary ($81.2 million).
Tourism
An initial damage assessment indicates that the preliminary cost of damage is put at $76.18 billion and losses at $88.32 billion. Damage within the tourism sector was greatest in Negril and the South Coast Resort Areas, Montego Bay, and Port Antonio. There were also reports of various attractions island-wide being affected. The most frequently reported type of damage related to buildings, boats and other vessels; extensive beach erosion; and extensive vegetative and landscape damage due to floods and heavy winds.
Education
Total damage to educational institutions is estimated at $157 million, while losses amounted to $940 million, for a total of $1.10 billion. This represents 6.11 per cent of the damage to the social sector. Some 147 schools were damaged by the event with the main damage being leakage and flooding. During the event attendance at schools was largely disrupted between September 28 and October 1, with all schools being declared closed on September 29.
Health
The Ministry of Health reported that 16 persons lost their lives as a result of the event, 14 of whom have been confirmed dead. Among those who perished were six children between 0 (newborn) and 14 years of age. Nine persons died by drowning and 10 by crush injury. In addition, 42 persons (31 males and 11 females) with injuries related to the weather event were treated at hospitals since September 28, 2010. Nine of the injured were admitted to hospital. The health sector sustained damage and losses to the tune of $270.0 million. Four Health Centres were closed as a result of the weather conditions. Two hundred and seventy-nine of the 302 Health Centres were opened on Friday, October 1, 2010. Of these, 231 offered full services and 48 partial services. All 24 public hospitals and the University Hospital of the West Indies remained operational with one hospital – the Spanish Town Hospital offering emergency services only.
Affected Population
The estimated population during the period of the flood rains was 2.7 million. As at October 5, 2010 approximately 18.7 per cent of the total population or some 507,831 persons from 130 communities were directly and indirectly affected by the natural disaster.
Hazards Experienced and Affected Communities
Affected persons lost homes and property due to flooding and landslides as well as freak storms. Some residents lost livelihoods or had their livelihood interrupted. Many of these persons were in the agricultural sector and were banana, vegetable and livestock farmers
Severely Affected
The impact of Tropical Storm Nicole and associated rains was felt throughout Jamaica, but tremendous damage was sustained in the parishes along the southeast through to southwest corridor and southern sections of northern parishes. The level of flooding or damage sustained in the impacted areas appears to have been directly related to the geomorphology, location and the nature of development undertaken in these areas. The areas affected were either located on alluvial fans, at the base of mountains (where the denuded hillsides lead to debris flows) or in karst terrain. The communities listed below were the worst affected.
A total of 2169 houses were assessed after the passage of Tropical Storm Nicole. Of these, 474 (21.8 per cent) were severely damaged while 54 (2.5 per cent) were totally destroyed. Damage amounted to an estimated $274.3 million of which $75.6 million was the replacement cost for those totally destroyed units. Westmoreland had the highest number of homes that were totally destroyed and accounted for a third of the estimated replacement cost. In terms of overall damage, the five most affected parishes in rank order are Westmoreland with 648 houses and 28.4 per cent of the reported cost of damage, KSA with 261 (15.8 per cent), St. Catherine - 209 (14.1 per cent), St. Mary – 27 (9.8 per cent) and St. Elizabeth with 310 (7.9 per cent) as presented in Table 11. Most of the damage to housing units was caused by flooding.
Communities Worst Affected by Tropical Storm Nicole
The parishes most affected include Hanover, Clarendon, KSA, Westmoreland, St. Catherine and St. Elizabeth which together accounted for 78.5 per cent of communities affected
Casualties
Sixteen persons reportedly lost their lives as a result of the event, 14 of whom have been confirmed dead. Among those who perished were six children between 0 (newborn) and 14 years of age (Table 7). Nine persons died by drowning and 10 by crush injury.
Among those who died, were six persons in Sandy Park, St. Andrew, whose two-bedroom house collapsed into the Sandy Gully, and three men who were crushed to death when a retaining wall collapsed on the shed in which they were sleeping in Norbrook Heights. A five-year old girl also lost her life when a tree fell on the house where she was sleeping in Christian Pen, St. Catherine. In addition, 42 persons (31 males and 11 females) with injuries related to the weather event were treated at hospitals since September 28, 2010. Nine of the injured were admitted to hospital. Three persons sustained injuries when their vehicle overturned on the Toll Road near Hill Run, St Catherine while five persons were injured during the microburst episode in Savanna-la-Mar, Westmoreland. As at October 3, 2010, two persons were still reported missing – an 11-year-old from Sandy Park, Kingston and St. Andrew and an 81-year-old from Riversdale, St. Catherine. Males suffered the brunt of injury and death accounting for 75 per cent of the deceased and 74 per cent of the injured.
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