The path that Hurricane Dennis took was just as forecasted (see Figure 1A & 1B), except for the rate of intensification and the speed of movement. Its centre was located approximately 60
kilometres east of Morant Point at 10:00 a.m. on July 7. Moving adjacent to the island’s north-eastern coastline, but remaining over the warm Caribbean waters, the centre was pinpointed at 50 kilometres northeast of Port Antonio at 1:00 p.m. and then 120 kilometres north of that town at 4:00 p.m. that day. The strengthening phase continued as Hurricane Dennis became a Category 3 hurricane at 4:00 p.m. and reached Category 4 by 10:00 p.m. the same evening. By that time, it had started to move away from Jamaica and was located at about 140 kilometres north of Falmouth. The Meteorological Service’s Doppler radar first detected outer bands of showers and heavy thunderstorms during the morning of July 6, spreading from east to west across the
island. There was some abatement during the afternoon; however, scattered showers and
thunderstorms were again observed late that night and gradually increased in extent, duration and intensity on July 7. The hurricane continued to produce significant rainfall across sections of the island through July 8, although with varying intensities.
Awareness of the general public was extremely high as Hurricane Emily emerged, developed and progressed during the week of July 11-17, 2005. Hurricane Emily became a Category 2 hurricane while located about 1430 kilometres east-southeast of the island’s easternmost point, and later strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. By this time, fishers were expected to have returned to the mainland, having evacuated the cays and banks. The customary
fluctuations in strength of the major hurricane occurred on July 15 with Hurricane Emily weakening to 205 km/h (category 3) by 10:00 a.m. to 165 km/h (category 2) by 4:00 p.m., and then re-intensifying to 185 km/h (category 3) by 7:00 p.m. and then to 215 km/h (category 4) by 10:00 p.m. (Figure 1E). Jamaica began to feel the effects of the tropical cyclone during the morning of July 16 with moderate to heavy showers spreading from eastern to central, and then to western parishes, while increasing in intensity and duration. Hurricane Emily began its passage over Jamaica’s southern waters at that time and was at its closest proximity while passing close to 150 kilometres of the south-western coastline. Hurricane Emily’s maximum wind speeds were reported to be about 250 km/h at this time. The system eventually started to move farther away from the island at about 4:00 p.m. on July 16, while rainfall persisted until the morning of July 17, 2005. The Hurricane Warning was discontinued at
4:00 a.m. on July 17, with the centre located about 390 kilometres west of Negril Point.
Total damage was estimated at $5 976.91 million or US$96.87 million. This is equivalent to 1.2 per cent of the previous year’s GDP. Infrastructure was the most affected area with damage and losses of $4 826.05 million, followed by the Productive sectors ($ 796.25 million); and the social sectors ($260.14 million). Transport/Roads and Bridges was the most affected sub-sector with total damage and losses of $4 271.89 million, or 71.5 per cent of the total impact. This was followed by Water Supply and Sanitation, $400.00 million, and Agriculture and Livestock $379.90 million. Considering indirect losses only, Transport/Roads and Bridges was the most
affected sub-sector $514.00 million, followed by Waste Management $55.40 million,
Electricity $50.00 million and Manufacturing $30.4 million.
Although the costs of the disasters represent a relatively small proportion of the GDP, the
disaster is likely to have a significant impact on the economy. The rate of growth of GDP
for 2005 without the disaster was estimated by the PIOJ at 3.6 per cent but has been adjusted downwards to 1.2 per cent taking into account the effects of the disaster. The
rate of inflation which was projected at 9 per cent has been revised upwards to14.3 per
cent to reflect the impact of the disaster and the continued increase in oil prices on the
international market.
Between the two events there were 7 reported casualties. Seven persons lost their lives as a direct result of the hurricanes, 6 in St. Elizabeth and 1 in St. Thomas. The Ministry of Health (MOH) reported that a 35 year old male drowned due to flooding caused by Dennis in Georgia, St. Thomas while in St. Elizabeth 5 persons drowned in a freak accident due to flooding and one was electrocuted by lightening. The casualties in St. Elizabeth comprised 4 adults aged 20-35 years, one of whom was a female and two children aged 4 years and 5 months, respectively.
The livelihood of 8 000 farm
families in 11 parishes was directly affected by the Hurricanes as was that of over 1 000
fisher folk. A total of 209 000 persons suffered varying levels of dislocation due to
Hurricane Dennis, while 122 590 were similarly affected as a result of Hurricane Emily.
The impact on the environment was manifest mainly through landslides; debris flow; and
soil erosion. The combined effect of sedimentation, sewage contamination due to washed
out pit latrines and broken sewages systems are likely to cause damage to the coastal
ecosystems, especially along the south eastern and north east coasts.
Source: https://goo.gl/WnJSWZ