Between 28 October and 5 November 2001, heavy -and at times violent- rains fell over Jamaica, particularly in its northeastern parishes. The heavy rainfall during this period was a direct result of the development of Hurricane Michelle. It is noteworthy that the majority of this rainfall fell during the early developmental stages of Hurricane Michelle, and not during its latter stages as it passed west of the island. In addition, it was during this period that the most intense rainfall fell across the northeastern parishes.
On 31 October 2001 Michelle became the thirteenth named Tropical Storm of the 2001 Atlantic
Hurricane Season over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The centre was then located near latitude 16.1
degrees north and longitude 83.2 degrees west, or about 550 kilometres southwest of Negril Point,
Jamaica. However, prior to it being named, the tropical depression and low-pressure area from which it formed, produced disturbed weather across the western Caribbean (including Jamaica).
At this time the ‘low ’ was centered just off the east coast of Nicaragua It is as a result of this area of disturbed weather that Jamaica -particularly northeast Jamaica- received heavy flood rains on the 28th and 29th October
On the night of 27 October showers had already begun affecting northeastern parishes. The parishes most affected by the heavy rainfall were Portland, St. Mary, St. Ann and to a lesser extent St. Andrew, St. Catherine and St. Thomas. Rainfall data gathered for nine stations of the 14 stations in St. Mary revealed a total of over 1000 millimeters of rainfall on both 28 and 29 October (Table 1). St. Ann received in excess of 700mm on 28 October and 1000mm on the 29th, while Portland received over 470mm on the 28th and over 1000mm on the 29th. Interestingly, although St. Mary received more rainfall than Portland for the period 28 October to 5 November, flooding and damages to infrastructure and agriculture were much more devastating in Portland.
By 1 November, rainfall amounts had decreased significantly across the island. Flooding however, continued in the northeastern parishes, as the floodwaters spilled over the banks of both natural and artificial waterways, which were not able to adequately contain the river flows. At this time the low had intensified into Tropical Storm Michelle, the centre of which was then located near latitude 17 degrees north, longitude 83.8 degrees west; or about 600km southwest of Negril Point, Jamaica. Average rainfall over the period 27 October to 5 November was 1924mm for the collective parishes of Portland, St. Mary, St. Ann, St. Andrew, St. Catherine and St. Thomas. As a result of this, Flash Flood Warnings for Jamaica were continued until November 5, at which time the chain of rainfall events had been broken, as Hurricane Michelle moved further north over the Atlantic Ocean
Population affected
The two main parishes which were affected following the heavy rains associated with hurricane
Michelle were St. Mary and Portland, both of which are located on the northeast coast and account for some 4.6% and 3.3% of the total population of Jamaica, respectively. The low population rate in those parishes contained the social impact of the disaster.
Within the two main parishes, as expected, some districts were more severely affected than
others. The affected districts were those of: Annotto Bay, Bangor Ridge, Belcares, Buff Bay, Bybrook, Claverty Cottage, Dumfries, Fellowship, Shrewsbury/Fruitful Vale, Skibo, and Swift River. Of these, the two extreme cases were to be found in the Bybrook and Swift River communities. These suffered from unusual amounts of debris and sediment having been deposited into the homes by the cascading rivers, Spanish River and Swift River, making the areas uninhabitable. Other areas, such as Claverty Cottage and Clifton Hill, became inaccessible due to flooding and road damage. They remained so six weeks after the event. Communities such as Annotto Bay and Buff Bay were flooded as they rested at the mouth of the Pencar River and the Buff Bay River, respectively. In all (5) five persons lost their lives due to the devastation brought on by the flood rains associated with hurricane Michelle. Three persons died during the first downpour at the end of October and two on November 4th in Westmoreland. Some 4,000 people were immediately affected and another 12, 000 were at high risk for health impairment, see table 4. Altogether, this represents a little over 12% of the combined population of the two parishes
Social sectors
a. Housing
Some 500 houses have been so completely damaged by the flooding in association with
Hurricane Michelle that they require complete replacement for families to be able to occupy them once again. In addition, many of these houses have to be placed in different locations from where the damage was originally done. Some 561 houses have been otherwise damaged
b. Education
Education is considered the engine of sustainable development and economic growth and
therefore any event that results in student disruption is of considerable concern. School life for many had not returned to normal, some six weeks after the natural disaster. Eighteen schools in the two worst affected parishes suffered considerable damage as a result of the flooding. Damage occurred to the roofing, the electrical facilities, retaining walls - resulting in land slippage - and in at least five cases, the waste disposal systems were damaged.
c. Health
Health infrastructure- The main damages to the health infrastructure were reported to be
leaking roofs at the Falmouth hospital, in Trelawny, flooding on one ward at the May Pen hospital in Clarendon and inaccessibility of health facilities in the two affected parishes due to flooded roadways. The Ministry reported that flooding occurred at 15% of health facilities.
Damage in the productive sectors
Agriculture, livestock and fisheries
In a number of areas, some six weeks after the event, some basic services have not been restored. In the case of agriculture and fisheries, the effects were more severe with crops and livestock experiencing damage of approximately J$541.3 million. Of this figure, some J$ 492.1 million represented direct damage. Some 1,911 hectares of crop farmlands were damaged, the most severely hit areas being St. Elizabeth, Portland and St. Andrew An estimate of direct damage (loss) of livestock puts the figure at J$ 30.8 million. The estimate of indirect damage is of the order o f J$3 million. No damage to fisheries has been reported.
Tourism
Damage to the tourism sector as a result of the flood rains is estimated to be relatively insignificant. The major damage to the sector had already been done as a consequence of the events of September 11 2001. A significant reduction in tourist arrivals ensued and to a great extent has continued. A slow increase in arrivals is beginning to take place as tourists and Americans in particular attempt to continue to live in their accustomed manner. About one hundred rafts were lost in the Rio Grande, thus depriving their owners o f a livelihood that was made from tourism activities. Inaccessibility by land has in addition temporarily curtailed this aspect of tourism activity and earnings.
Industry and Commerce
The damage to industry and commerce caused by the flood rains was less severe than in
agriculture. Manufacturing comprises some 14.4 percent of GDP and Commerce accounts for 21.4 percent. The manufacture of agro-industrial products will be adversely affected by the losses in agricultural production and by difficulties in transporting produce to the factories. The production of sugar has not been adversely affected as that activity preceded the rains. It is possible that the next cycle of production will feel some effect resulting from flooded sugar cane lands. No adverse effects to commerce have been reported.
MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS
1. Summary of damage
The totals of direct and indirect damage assessments of the sectors affected are shown below
In the table below a number of ratios are presented to complete the appreciation of the damage. It is clear that the damage was severe but not enough to cause massive dislocation to the macroeconomic variables.
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